| RotoFreak.com: Miami Heat Fantasy Preview Authored by Craig Huffman - October 3, 2006 - 12:59 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | Final Thoughts On The 2008 NBA Draft This year's draft was decidedly more calm and casual than the Oden/Durant showdown, which made for a more candid and personal experience.
Grading The Deal: Knicks Sign DuhonThe Knicks overpaid for a below average starting point guard, but the move should still pay dividends.
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Oh Danny Boy
Danny Granger, who has just three years of NBA experience under his belt, will undoubtedly be the man in Indiana beginning this summer.
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$10 Million For Five Players?
The Orlando Magic will be limited by the NBA's Luxury Tax in terms of filling the remaining spots on their roster. It is also possible it could cost them Keyon Dooling or Maurice Evans.
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Raptorland’s New Carnivore
The Raptors are bringing in a player who will have an immediate impact (unlike Hibbert or whomever the Raptors would’ve drafted at 17), plays a position of need (unlike Ford,) and carries a reputation of intimidation (unlike Nesterovic).
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More from RealGM's Columnists
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Shaquille O'Neal – With smallball and hack-a-Shaq being utilized more, and 35 years of age creeping up on him, we only got 30 mpg from Shaq last year - and his fantasy value suffered. Not that he was anything special before that, though... his crippling FT% and poor turnover numbers capped his value around an 80th rank. His trade value used to justify picking him in the top 50; however, with his effectiveness decreasing and the league's younger stars more in the limelight, most of that 'hype' has faded away. So, we're left drafting Shaq closer to his actual value - which isn't pretty. Of course, you can always try to cut FT% and corner in on the other 8 stats. You best be a statistician to do that in a competitive roto league, though. And, the likelihood that Riley rests Shaq late in the year (aka h2h playoff time) combined with Shaq's history of injuries, doesn't make that strategy wise in h2h leagues either. We have him ranked outside of our top 100 in roto leagues... it's just too big of a hill to climb with him on our roster. In h2h leagues, we've ranked him in the top-75 range, thinking that he'll have some trade value in a system that is more forgiving when you corner stats.
Jason Williams – It was a familiar scene for JWill's owners last year... he gave us top-75 stats; but, we were left wanting more minutes. The knee tendonitis certainly didn't help, as he struggled the whole year with it, missing several games in the process. Plus, Payton needed some decent clock in a back-up role. 33 or 34 mpg is certainly possible in this lineup, considering Payton's age and the lack of depth at the position. Unfortunately, JWill hasn't quite recuperated from offseason knee surgery, and it's looking like he won't be ready to start the season. With Riley cautious bringing him back, we're not willing to invest a top 100 pick on JWill right now. But if news come out that he's good to go, we'll pick him closer to last year's value.
Udonis Haslem – With Antoine Walker spilling over to the 4, Haslem's minutes dropped by 3 per game and his stats suffered across the board. His lunch-pail work ethic and strong rebounding locks him into the starting line up and he rarely misses a game; so, he can be relied upon this year. With Posey and Toine healthy, and Haslem's fantasy game propelled by solid percentage and turnover totals, the upside doesn't get much better than the top 100, though. We have him ranked at 110, which is likely earlier than he gets taken in the vast majority of drafts this fall.
James Posey – Posey's late-season ankle tendonitis was rather costly - Toine started all of April in his absence and never looked back, despite Posey returning in time for the playoff run. Riley isn't going to mess with success either; so, you can count on Posey jacking up 3's off the bench in 06-07. His minutes are likely only going to drop by a couple of minutes; so, his fantasy value won't fall too much. We have him around the 130th pick, 20 spots lower than last year's value but 10 to 20 spots higher than he'll go in most drafts.
Alonzo Mourning – Everybody knows what they're getting from Zo - he collects Shaq's leftover minutes, is solid on the boards, and pounds the block column. If he can get 20 mpg again this year, he'll hover around the top 100. Unfortunately, that value doesn't come consistently. We get 15 minutes when Shaq is healthy, and 30 minutes when Shaq isn't. That's a 165th rank one night and 60th the next. We're drafting him around 150, taking his mpg downside and injury concerns into account.
Antoine Walker – There are only 96 minutes available at the forward spots in a game, and Posey and Haslem's defense warrants about 60 of them. Add Barron's minutes to the mix, and Toine will still be hard-pressed to see 30 mpg. So, despite the starting gig, we're keeping Toine around last year's ranking of 150.
Gary Payton – He's barely in the top 200 when in a back-up role; however, when JWill is out of the lineup, Payton has the potential to sneak into the top 100. We're waiting on a timeline for JWill's return before we bump him up; however, he might be a guy that we reach for to get immediate help and use as trade sweetener thereafter.
Dorrel Wright – Miami's quest for a title has stapled Wright to the bench these past few years. He's still an outstanding prospect, though... and he has fantasy-friendly stats to boot. The exit of Derek Anderson should slip him into the rotation this year, backing up Wade. There's no immediate value here; but, keep an eye on him.
Shandon Anderson – There isn't any value here... he's the defensive stopper off the bench, and his minutes have declined the past three years. If Dorrel steps up as expected, we'll be seeing even less of Shandon this year.
This article appears courtesy of RotoFreak, your source for fantasy basketball analysis |
