| 2009-10 Season Preview: Miami Heat Authored by Andrew Perna - October 20, 2009 - 8:44 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: +2.6, 13th
Key Additions: Carlos Arroyo, Quentin Richardson
Key Subtractions: Luther Head, Jamario Moon
Key Rookies: None
Probable Starters: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, Jermaine O’Neal
Point Guard: They added Carlos Arroyo to the mix recently, but Mario Chalmers should still get a majority of the minutes at point guard to begin his sophomore season in the NBA. He turned out to be a very serviceable starter as a rookie, averaging 10 points, 4.9 assists and 2.0 steals while playing in all 82 games.
He isn’t an above-average offensive player, but with Dwyane Wade in the backcourt, the Heat don’t really need him to be. Chalmers, however, can keep defenses honest with his three-point shot. He hit 114 threes last season at a 36.7% clip. Because of that, his effective field goal percentage (50.6) was much better than his overall shooting percentage (42.0).
Chalmers also displayed good defensive instincts for a rookie, making Miami’s backcourt one of the better units in that respect. Only Chris Paul and Wade had more steals than Chalmers' 160 in 2008-09. Prior to the Arroyo signing, the Heat needed more depth but Chalmers can certainly be their starter for the foreseeable future. Wade sometimes triggers the offense and he also frequently has the ball in his hands in the halfcourt, taking some pressure off of Chalmers as he continues to mature as a player. Even with his lack of experience, a majority of his on/off court numbers were positive last season.
Arroyo and Chris Quinn will play behind Chalmers. The pair have varying skill sets, which will allow coach Erik Spoelstra to use them in different situations. Arroyo forces things at times and doesn’t have the shooting ability of Quinn, who was the team’s leading sharpshooter last season. He hit 40.9% of his three-point attempts and could probably stand to take more this year.
Quinn played an overwhelming majority of his minutes at point guard last season, something Spoelstra should continue to do. He’s one of their best shooters, but isn’t suited for the role of off-guard because of his size and defensive shortcomings. Over the course of last season, Quinn had a +/- of +32 as a point and -26 as a shooting guard.
Swingmen: Miami isn't considered one of the NBA's elite teams, but they do have one of the league’s elite players, which on some nights is all they need. After a “down” season in 2007-08 where he battled injuries and the end of the Shaq era, Wade bounced back with an MVP-caliber effort this past year. He led the league in scoring (30.2 points per game), while also posting 7.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.0 steals and shooting close to 50% from the floor.
He’ll always miss a handful of games due to his playing style, but the 79 games he logged in 2008-09 was a career-high. He hit 31.7% of his attempts from three-point land, a new wrinkle in his offensive skill set that could make him impossible to guard if that continues to improve. If he can continue to reliably extend his range, he’ll give opposing defenses migraine headaches on a nightly basis. He attacks the basket with great ease and a more reliable shot from downtown would make his offensive game complete.
As I mentioned above, Wade handles the ball quite a bit. He has a great crossover and is one of the best playmakers in the NBA, but the Heat might benefit from taking the ball out of his hands a tad bit. He had the second-most turnovers in the league last season, trailing Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook by just two miscues. Sure, he dished seven assists a game, but he turned the ball over more than three times as well.
With that said, the Heat need him to have the ball in his hands and his feet on the floor. Miami scored 11.2 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor last season, while holding opponents to 2.8 fewer points at the same time. That’s a 14 point swing.
Newcomer Quentin Richardson will probably see time at both wing positions, taking over at shooting guard in the rare occasion that Wade is taking a breather. Assuming he’s able to find his luggage, he was traded 72 ½ times this summer, he’ll make a significant impact in South Beach. Outside of Wade and Michael Beasley, Richardson probably is the most dangerous offensive player the Heat have on their roster.
He thinks he’s a better scorer than he is, but he’s still a pretty darn good one. If Spoelstra can keep him from shooting threes at an almost Antoine Walker-like pace, he’ll complement Miami’s pieces nicely.
Michael Beasley will see time at both forward positions. Thankfully, for Beasley and the Heat, he looks like much less of a question mark than he did a few weeks ago when the word ‘rehab’ was too often in the same sentence as his name. He needs to channel his size and strength on the defensive end, but he’s already a solid starter in the league. He’s just a few months away from his 21st birthday, which means he still has a few years to grow as both a person and a player.
He can score from a variety of places, including behind the three-point line. It’s actually shocking that the Heat ranked just 22nd in the league in three-point shooting percentage last season when you think of all the players they have capable of hitting a triple. They were, however, ninth in attempts and eleventh in makes.
Daequan Cook, James Jones, Dorell Wright and Yakhouba Diawara, assuming they all remain with the team through the preseason, will fight for the minutes left behind by Wade, Richardson and Beasley when the latter isn’t at power forward. In a growing theme, both Cook and Jones can catch fire from the outside when given time.
Frontcourt: I know I’m going to get a host of e-mails from fans asking why I’m slotting Beasley in at small forward when he played nearly all of his minutes in the frontcourt last season. In the interest of time (both yours and mine), I’ll explain my stance.
Beasley needs to improve to defend effectively in the post. He’s athletic, which will allow him to get by against wings, but more than agility and athleticism is needed to defend in the paint. I’m not saying he’s soft, I just think the Heat are better off at least splitting his minutes between the three and four.
I will admit, though, that the Heat are thin in the frontcourt without Beasley playing a significant amount of time at power forward (they do have great depth on the wing). Udonis Haslem and Jermaine O’Neal are the starters I’m projecting with Joel Anthony and Jamaal Magloire coming off the bench.
Haslem has a decent 10-foot jump shot, but he shouldn’t be taking more than one or two of those per game. He’s a blue-collar player, who could probably stockpile some double-doubles with consistent time and his scoring coming off missed shots and botched plays.
O’Neal might be better suited for a power forward role, but he’ll be Miami’s primary center this season. There are always concerns about his knees and they certainly aren’t baseless. I thought playing with the Heat could help jumpstart his career after rough times in both Toronto and Indiana recently, but he’s still just a shell of his former self. His numbers in Miami (13 points and 5.4 rebounds) were his lowest since his Portland days.
He no longer has the trademark agility that made him an MVP candidate in his prime, which seems like eons ago even though he just turned 31 last week. He needs to outsmart opponents on offense rather than rely on his physicality and athleticism, which is a foreign concept.
O’Neal is probably only at about 60% strength in relation to where he was five or six years ago, and the Heat would be exponentially better if he could just hit 75-80% this season. Rarely are grown men staring at knees in South Beach, but this pair will have a huge baring on how often the Heat seal the deal this season.
Forecast: Of all the teams I expect to compete for the final five playoff berths in the Eastern Conference, the Heat have the most question marks. Can Wade stay relatively healthy? Will Chalmers and Beasley progress or regress? Is O’Neal capable of averaging a double/double again? Pat Riley had the ability to make Miami a lock for the postseason, but he kept his eye on the future. It remains to be seen if that decision will doom the club over the next six months.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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