| A Cold Front Hits Miami Authored by Andrew Perna - December 12, 2007 - 4:05 pm
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The Heat (6-15) were only better (numerically) than two NBA teams going into Wednesday night’s games, the Timberwolves and Supersonics.
It’s especially chilling to see a team with players of Wade and O’Neal’s caliber sitting below the likes of New York, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings.
Miami did begin the season with Wade on the bench, dropping six of their first seven games, but their record with their star guard (5-9) isn’t anything to write home about either. In a league where superstars are the name of the game, it’s no wonder that the Heat’s fortunes seem to ride heavily on the play of their charismatic leaders.
In five wins this season Wade is averaging 26.2 points and 6.8 assists per game on 46.9 percent shooting from the floor. His scoring, however, takes a significant dip when Miami records a loss. In nine defeats, Wade has put up 20.8 points and 6.1 assists per game on 46.2 percent shooting.
His assist numbers and shooting percentage don’t vary far from the norm when the Heat lose, but I found an interesting correlation. Dwyane attempts three more shots per game when Miami wins (19.2 to 16.1). His points-per-shot average steady (1.36 in wins, 1.29 in losses), which means that in order for the Heat to start winning games – D-Wade needs to shoot the rock more often.
Miami’s other superstar, O’Neal, may be on the downside of his career, but his numbers provide some insight into the Heat’s struggles as well.
Shaq has appeared in all of the Miami’s games this season, averaging 14.7 points and 8 rebounds per game. His numbers when victorious are slightly better than average. He has posted 16.5 points and 8.8 rebounds in six Miami wins, on 64.1 percent shooting. In the team’s fifteen losses Shaq Diesel is averaging 14 points and 7.6 rebounds on 58.8 percent shooting.
A drop of two points and a rebound isn’t going to lose fifteen games for a team, but his efficiency might. His shooting percentage is six percentage-points better in Heat victories, with his points-per-shot average dropping from 1.56 (in wins) to 1.28 (in losses).
It could simply be that at age 35, Shaq has nights where he cannot get his body to cooperate with what his mind is telling it to do. However, his cumulative field goal percentage this season is .604, the highest of his sixteen-year NBA career.
That substantiates O’Neal’s point that he should be getting more shot attempts in Miami’s offense. For the season he’s averaging just 10.4 shots per game, another career-low. Both Ricky Davis (13.3) and Udonis Haslem (11.3) average more shot attempts each night than one of the game’s greatest players of all time.
Pat Riley has three weeks to get his team back on track, with a manageable schedule through the New Year. With Wade back to form and Shaq in line for more touches, there is no reason why this team, not all too different from the ’06 championship squad, can’t go .500 over their next ten games.
That would bring them to 11-20 heading into 2008, a record that as disappointing as it looks, would give them promise heading into the final four months of the season.
Making a move for a better point guard, like Mike Bibby or Jason Kidd, would surely reverse Miami’s fortunes, but Riley may not have the pieces needed to make that kind of move. The expiring contracts of guys like Jason Williams and Dorell Wright might be enticing to some, but beyond that the Heat don’t have much they’d likely be willing to offer.
If Shaq doesn’t get the ball more often, D-Wade doesn’t stay healthy and Riley doesn’t make a move of some kind before it’s too late – the Heat may be put on ice for the season.
Are the Heat lottery bound? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
